Canadian History and Floor-Crossing in Politics
MPs who change party affiliation have been labeled with a wide range of terms: traitor, shameful, brave, principled. However, one descriptor that rarely fits them is "re-electable."
Recent Floor-Crossing Cases
The political scene in Ottawa was shaken by the news that longtime Conservative Chris d'Entremont is joining the federal Liberal caucus, with Prime Minister Mark Carney suggesting others might follow.
Historical Context
Floor-crossing has been a part of Canadian politics since Confederation. Yet, a historical review indicates this practice now comes with significant electoral risks.
“Switching parties is an extremely risky move that almost always hurts a politician's chances of re-election,” said Semra Sevi, assistant professor in the University of Toronto’s political science department.
Electoral Impact Over Time
Semra Sevi's research tracked every MP who switched parties from Confederation to 2015. The findings show that before the mid-20th century, MPs who crossed the floor maintained similar vote shares as before their switch.
However, since the 1970s, the success rate for floor-crossers has declined sharply.
“As parties become institutionalized, the electoral cost of switching has risen dramatically. So that makes political survival outside of one's party increasingly unlikely,” Sevi explained. “There are rare instances of success."
Summary
Floor-crossing in Canadian politics, once a risk-free move electorally, now often leads to diminished chances of re-election as party loyalty intensifies.
Author's Note: The evolving nature of Canadian party politics has turned floor-crossing from a feasible strategy into a risky gamble, reducing politicians' chances of electoral success.